The world economy has hit the energy ceiling

2022-06-23
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On June 29, the 19th World Petroleum Congress opened in Madrid, Spain, to discuss how to control the soaring international oil price. Ironically, during the meeting, on July 2, oil prices in New York and London both broke through $144 a barrel, hitting a record high. Obviously, the market has little hope for the effect of this oil conference

in essence, high oil prices are the result of the imbalance between supply and demand. According to the report of the International Monetary Fund, in the past five years, the global economic growth rate has exceeded 4% every year, forming the longest round of economic expansion cycle of the world economy in the past 30 years. With the rapid development of economy, the speed of energy consumption exceeds that of energy supply. This change in the relationship between supply and demand is the fundamental reason why domestic and foreign experimental machine manufacturers have launched the experimental machine dual operation system one after another and the international oil price is rising

at the same time, the inherent drawbacks of the international financial system have also contributed to the high oil prices. In the 1970s, the Bretton Woods system collapsed and the US dollar was decoupled from gold. Since then, the world has entered the "free printing era", laying the hidden danger of unlimited expansion of monetary credit. When the oil market is in short supply, the United States will print more dollars to buy oil. As the oil supply speed will never catch up with the printing speed of dollars, the oil price in dollars will soar, leading to a sharp rise in the prices of natural gas and coal

if the above discussion is true, the prospect of the world economy is obviously gloomy. At present, the soaring oil and food prices, inflation and other phenomena in the international market are caused by the fact that the non renewable resources represented by oil can not meet the needs of human development. This means that the world economy has hit the energy ceiling. Unless there is a large-scale development and utilization of new technologies and new energy, the world economy will inevitably fall into recession

according to Malthus' theory, when the resource supply fails to catch up with the population growth, evil (war, plague, hunger, etc.) will occur to eliminate the population until the economy is rebalanced. For most of human history, it is in this strange circle that the cycle goes back and forth. The current energy dilemma facing the world is similar to the Malthusian cycle. If mankind cannot find a way to break through the energy bottleneck, it can only eliminate rigid demand through recession or even war

the fundamental solution is to start the fourth technological revolution represented by new energy technology, develop new technologies and new energy, and get rid of the dependence on traditional fossil fuels

for China, only by becoming the leader of the fourth technological revolution can it have the opportunity to break through the energy bottleneck and get rid of the situation of being controlled by others. Historically, the first three technological revolutions took place in the world's leading countries. China should be ambitious in the classification of displacement sensors for tensile testing machines, and occupy a place where the elongation of materials is generally high in the fourth technological revolution of mankind. In this regard, China has unique advantages. First, China is heavily dependent on imports of oil and natural gas, and has a strong economic desire to develop alternative energy; Second, China's huge market provides a broad profit-making space for companies that research and develop new technologies and new energy; Third, China is currently facing excess liquidity, which can be used to provide huge financial support for the development of new technologies and new energy; Fourth, China's scientific research system is relatively complete. If it can be effectively combined with enterprises, it can provide a strong technical and talent guarantee for the development of new technologies and new energy. These conditions are likely to make China a country that has made technological breakthroughs

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